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Post by wingedwishes on May 2, 2011 7:17:39 GMT -8
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Post by dertodesking on May 3, 2011 2:37:41 GMT -8
Well, I am an ornithologist and even this story is HIGHLY suspect among the ornithology community. This audio has been played ad nauseum and he is the ONLY one who has vehemently insisted this is an ivory bill without any other supporting evidence. As a scientist, an ornithologist, and a general biologist you need more than a few seconds of audio to validate a theory like that. I would love to be proven wrong, but so many people have searched those swamps after that audio was recorded and they found nothing to support the claim. No signs of nesting holes or otherwise that couldn't be traced back to the pileated woodpecker. There is still the issue that the sound could have been made by another woodpecker. Animal behavior is not an exact science. It would be like me saying I heard an elephant in my neighbor's back yard because his pig learned to make an new noise. Even if there was an ivory bill the chances of it surviving and maintaining a viable breeding couple is slim to none. The same thing happen to the Spix's macaw. The last male was documented and then lost with no possibility of a mating pair. Luckily there are still some strong beeding programs around the world for them simply because of their value among parrot collectors for their rarity, but they will not likley see the wild ever again. It's not just audio though vw...the youtube link above includes video footage (admitedly VERY distant/grainy and only a few seconds long). To the naked eye (well, mine anyway) it doesn't show much but the analysis (comparing the wingspan to pileated woodpeckers, wing flaps per second etc etc) does seem to suggest that something other than a pileated has been caught on camera. Simon |
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vwman
Full Member
Posts: 72
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Post by vwman on May 3, 2011 9:00:08 GMT -8
Simon,
Given the area and the habitat, it is understandable why the Ivory bill would be a candidate and that bird very well could have been such. Like I said I would love to be proven wrong, but as so many other ornithologists have agreed - it is really a bad video and not solid enough proof. There is not a lot of history on their overall behavior to say that the birds were typically that cryptic. On the contrary most of the evidence says they are fairly casual about their behavior and not trying to hide. They were known to hang around their nest hole and had a small range beyond that. That being said many of us think that with the intensive effort that went into to searching for them they should be fairly easy to find even if there were only a few. I will give that that area is extremely hard to survey because of the conditions, but after nearly 7 years of searching and not so much as another sighting -it is hard to swallow.
The odds are stacked against them too. If a population does exist there has to be a large enough population to sustain them. Simply replacing yourself is not enough. There are too many threats and mortality factors to be able to sustain a population that only has a few birds. Those birds would have to be able to replace themselves several times during their lifetime and with that there should be more sightings. I'll use the Spix's macaw again. The last male sighted in the wild was sighted fairly often and he was only one bird. He was never able to find a mate and he suddenly disappeared. He fell victim to some mortal threat whether it be predation or sickness. For what the video is, it is still suspect. On the other hand like Tom said the fact that acreage was preserved and that people are actively looking and have an interest in the world around them is awesome. That video gives us hope that something still exists that we as a species on this planet were responsible for it's demise. Until someone comes up with better video or god willing a "bird in the hand" I am going to have my doubts.
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Post by beetlehorn on May 5, 2011 20:37:55 GMT -8
I too must admit that doubts in regards to the Ivory Billed Woodpecker's survival have crept in. I have as well as probably all of us here, seen the negative side in cases such as this one, that seem to prevail in terms of an endangered species' survival especially one believed to be extinct. Then again, it was some 60 years that they were thought to be extinct, then all of a sudden a flurry of sightings, with several along the way coming from fairly credible sources. A period of 5 or 6 years is a relatively short time span by which to judge whether or not they still exist. If any one of these people actually did see one, and positively identified it (if even to themselves), it is my opinion that presuming their testimony as ambiguous, would be a direct insult. Take for example the Schuaus' Swallowtail (Papilio aristodemus ssp. ponceanus). For years they were thought to be extinct, then one man, Dr. Thomas Emmel found a tiny colony in one of the Florida keys and developed a way to build up their populations, even on the mainland. Today you could realistically go to extreme south Florida and very likely encounter this species. Much of his success was attributed to his knowledge of the habitat and foodplant requirements for these butterflies, and the foresight to improve the conditions for them, which is happening for our woodpeckers as you read this currently. The habitat is the key, it must remain intact and improve steadily for them to have any kind of chance. I stand with Dr. Fitzpatric and say I believe they still persist somewhere out there. I think the searchers are overlooking something. Perhaps the few birds sighted were looking for nesting sites, or perhaps the beetle larvae they prefer only occur within certain trees, and they are few and far between. This would explain the fleeting encounters. Maybe their centralized zones are nowhere near the areas they were sighted. These opinions are somewhat arbitrary in nature, because I have no solid proof to back them up, but we are dealing with a rather elusive bird in a huge tract of forest (well over 50,000 acres!) much of which is hardly ever explored, so any one of these possibilities would make finding one or more of these birds quite difficult. This is especially true if one doesn't know where to concentrate a search, thus making it a random search at best. Tom
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Post by papilio28570 on May 6, 2011 23:03:08 GMT -8
I believe the bird still exists based on the observations and credibility of the expert's interpretation of same.
It is obvious to me that the surviving birds adapted as a result of a near extinction event and have been able to reproduce in limited numbers for several decades. What the adaptation might be I have no idea. Could be a change in food supply, nesting choices..who knows. With the flurry of sightings, this may indicate that the bird is staging a come back. Seems there are reports from Florida, Louisiana and Arkansas. That is potentially three separate populations that have somehow survived against the odds. If true, it would be nice to link the groups for the sake of the gene pool.
I have always been amazed by how stubborn life is.
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Post by starlightcriminal on Jun 2, 2011 10:56:28 GMT -8
papilio- Geographically isolated populations of the same species are often not useful for gene pool enrichment, especially if they have experience a bottle neck in population like the Ivory Bill would have, which presumes it is even still around (I'm reserving my opinion for more evidence as well- not very convincing at all). Please see Cheetah's for the most famous example. The two races cannot produce offspring even though they are the same and would be found in FAR greater number than the last two Ivory Bills, assuming they are still around.
Second, the "rash" of sightings is a common phenomenon as well. One person sees something and reports it, suddenly the suggestion is implanted in every would-be believer's mind and you have reports of it all over the place. This happens with alien sightings all the time. The aforementioned Skunk Ape is another great example of a "flurry" of sightings that are in reality a bunch of nut-cases or people who really crave attention. That is not reason to believe the animal is still alive either.
There is only one actual "observation" that is suggestive, the audio recording that has been dissected thoroughly here and everywhere else. Once someone who is not an amateur and NOT the group spending all their time and money on finding the Ivory bill produces something concrete I might be more apt to believe it. So far, only experts that claim to see this bird are the people most invested in it. Like all science, it is not convincing technically until you can demonstrate the validity of your hypothesis with independently verifiable data derived from separate, unique approaches. Goes to credibility, which has also been discussed at length here. You wouldn't make broad ultimatums, like declaring rediscovery of an extinct species you can't really show is alive exactly, without more than a "belief" that what you think is correct. If you do, then I also am very skeptical of the rest of your work and, moreover, of your ethics as a researcher. That's why we abstain from doing this in the scientific community and why those who do are... suspicious.
I think these guys really really want to find that bird so they are extrapolating conclusions that are unsupported. Notice how they are either brief, discrete sightings by locals or all from the Cornell Ornithology Lab? Why no other institutions?
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Post by papilio28570 on Jun 2, 2011 20:34:07 GMT -8
Your points are well taken. I was unaware of the same species being unable to breed fertile offspring as you illuminated with the cheetahs. How interesting!
On a different note, I recall several years ago seeing a documentary of an Australian with lots of money attempting to reassemble the DNA of the Tasmanian Tiger from old tissue samples in hopes of re-engineering the beast back into existence. As I recall the project was about half completed at the time and expectations were high.
If successful, the DNA was going to be implanted in an egg of a related animal and the host mother animal would bear the pup.
Am I alone in that memory or does anyone have updated information?
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Post by jackblack on Jun 3, 2011 2:07:31 GMT -8
Hey I`m new to this stuff/ site , but yea , I beleive there are still things out there to be discovered , had a tree Kangaroo as a pet in PNG when I was a boy 40 years ago ,still undescribed NEW Genus , prehensile tail like a cuss cuss sadly I didn`t have a photo.Also some years ago wife and I spotted giant cat in Nth Qld full moon and only 8mtrs away , beleive it or not scary .
Jack in the bush.
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