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Post by wingedwishes on May 12, 2011 16:45:10 GMT -8
The scientists on the list are qualified. Look at who they are. ALL on the list were qualified before being listed. If you have a PhD in a related field, you would be qualified to speak about your field unless it is honorary. I don't remember a thread about global climate change going nuclear. I hope adherants don't react poorly but some might. Even if there were no one in the world "qualified via publication," you and I can look at facts and draw our own conclusions. I know a bit about the "publish or perish" racket. I know those who have published work they had interns write for them. It is common in academia (unethical but common). I'm sorry but I can't place much value into the "valid only if published" idea. Sometimes, data is made up to spruce up a dissertation. I've seen it done. I will trust the experienced carpenter more than the guy who has an intern research how to make a house and then publish it after having other guys who did the same thing approve of it.
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Post by nomihoudai on May 13, 2011 0:01:39 GMT -8
This is my first post upon this topic, and hopefully the last one as I don't want to get dragged into this discussion too much.
I just wanted to ask you wingedwishes what you call here qualified ? I did look at the page you send and I did take out one name of the list as I don't have the time of checking up 9000 peoples curricula, a familiar name. The name I am talking about is that one of Frederick Seitz, whom I have a deep respect for for his findings in solid-state physics, findings I am familiar with due to my studies in physics I am currently doing at a German university.
How can you call someone that made his scientific work in such a specialised field qualified in talking about a topic that combines ecology, meteorology and many other fields this brilliant man probably had no clue about ? It is like asking your butcher how he would make a wedding cake, but on a whole different scale. The butcher has in common with your confectioner that both work in the field of food, but that is it and it does not qualify the butcher to tell you anything about how to make a wedding cake.
I will now not go too deeply into another thing that Seitz promoted that second-hand smoking wouldn't be harmful at all, I just wanted to mention it as people as they grow old, regardless of their brilliance start to promote weird and unrational thoughts.
My thoughts on your list of "qualified" people.
Personnaly I can't express here my opinion on the matter of an anthropogenic origin of climate change as I don't have one and I surely don't feel qualified in raising one, altough I am qualified in science.
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Post by wingedwishes on May 13, 2011 2:26:58 GMT -8
If the entire list is disqualified by one person who is arguably qualified, can the same logic be used to disqualify all of those who say warming is man made because of the outfit guilty of falsifying records to fit what they want to believe? I think physics does have a place in the debate though. I agree on strange things coming from older brilliants - Linus Pauling for example thought vitamin C solved everything.
One last thing from todays news. A 16 year old did research and tests and found a very effective way to treat Cystic Fibrosis. This was part of a science project. His method had not been considered by researchers. Though not published, this kid took information and used the scientific method to prove a theory. He is qualified to speak about CF. He effectively made a better "wedding cake."
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Post by nomihoudai on May 13, 2011 2:50:19 GMT -8
> can the same logic be used to disqualify all of those who say warming is man made because of the outfit guilty of falsifying records to fit what they want to believe?
Of course it can, I remember you that I don't take any site in this debate as I am not qualified to. I just showed you that you should be more criticaly thinking when evaluating things you read as you choose to take a side in this debate.
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Post by wollastoni on May 13, 2011 3:06:40 GMT -8
Wingedwishes < Not sure to understand : do you contest global warming or its man origin ?
Global warming is just a fact. Everyyear glaciers and ice floes are diminishing, and it is still the case now. Of course, in the past, there have been some hotter periods on Earth, but a hotter climate is not compatible with our way of life and our food needs for an uncontrollably growing human population.
Man origin is also obvious. Men have destroyed most of forests of the world and release everyyear tonnes of green house effect gazes. It must have an effect on climate... except if physical laws have changed.
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Post by starlightcriminal on May 13, 2011 5:23:18 GMT -8
Winged: notice how those links are not reputable sources? I can find lots of links with conspiracy theories about everything on the sun, sure. But does that mean they were silenced because they were saying anything true or relevant? Not at all. And then the question is- where they really "bullied into silence" or were they in reality dismissed because they have no basis or credibility? Wollstoni is right on, again, as usual . There are fundamental laws of physics that govern the universe and they are involved in regulating the atmospheric content of the earth. It's preposterous to suggest that we can cut down forests, burn thousands of tons of fossil fuel, have giant industrial pools of animal waste sequestered into vast gas-generating pits, and so and so is somehow magically negated because it was produced by humans. We are not part of a closed ecological system. Qualification of a study is very simple. The capacity to approach a study and generate valid data without jumping to conclusions not supported by the results. That's all, nothing complicated. The point is that others can reproduce your data and the conclusions still hold true, or better yet, are confirmed independently by other approaches. Instead of looking only at one side and jumping in head first, why not check both to see why each group believes they are correct. There is a data driven, factual basis for why one mode of thinking is uncommon and the other is embraced by the majority of the scientific community. There are going to bad scientists and poorly designed studies out there on both sides of most issues, absolutely. But the overwhelming number of studies by relevant groups are singing the same song in every language they know. It's not a big conspiracy, I promise. BTW, for this topic I have a specially qualified individual available to me- my sister is a climatologist at the NWS in Norman, OK. And she wouldn't even lie about farting.
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Post by bichos on May 13, 2011 6:09:14 GMT -8
Hello eveybody, Thanks for the posts, one thing is for sure this is a 'hot' topic indeed. I've decided if I don't make it out of this one alive and it all turns to ###! I would like wwishes to have my butterfly collection, as I found his posts on this thread most confusing.
btw I agree on rumas comments, particularly those aboout global cooling and how this is counteracting the atmospheric warming effects
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Post by starlightcriminal on May 13, 2011 7:19:21 GMT -8
Global cooling is not enough alone though. About 1/6 of the effect of warming counteracted is the most recent estimate I have heard. Particulates making smaller water droplets able to form highly reflective clouds. One of the proposed temporary fixes for warming has to do with pumping inert particulates, most likely silver salts, into the air in order to induce this effect. Of course most don't think it's a great option, but we always need a plan b, c, d, and e in case things get out of hand (which they might if we keep refusing to accept our role in the effect). Funny thought though- have you ever seen someone with Argyria? Imagine a whole world full of gray people... Used to be thought that silver would help with some rheumatological disorders, it was used as a holistic medicine and still is by a few people. Makes you look like you were clipped from a black and white photo. Not harmful other than to your self esteem maybe.
Anyway, no one is claiming that temperatures didn't change before industrial times, just that they are changing very fast now and that they are not even close to the threshold. Do we really want to restore the earth to its former status of ball clouded in hot sulfur?
wwinged, do you understand how these numbers were generated and what they can actually prove? For example, Bob Carter might show that Mann et. al is incorrect, but nobody with any life science education would believe that anyway as we all are aware that the end of the last ice age caused the desertification of the Sahara in just one generation, and that's just one of a number of said shifts (after all, the poles used to be covered in Azolla sp., right?). All that those numbers actually show is that climate change happens, you can't read any more into them. It cannot be concluded from this information that the modern problem is therefor unrelated to human activities. It simply states that climate change can happen by itself. The point of the modern dilemma is that we know:
1. Climate change can happen rapidly and 2. Such climate changes result in catastrophic extinction and major shifts in ecological systems and 3. The measurable, added output resulting from modern human activity contributes a great amount of warming gas, more than ever before
So the question is- if these historical changes were bad enough by themselves, do we really want to continue on the same path we are on, knowing that we are contributing to this at an accelerated rate, given that the historical evidence shows that these changes in lesser magnitudes are very bad for life in general already?
Finding random numbers on the internet that seem to support what you want to think isn't convincing unless you understand what those numbers mean, how they were derived and what you can actually imply from them. These studies try to draw conclusions that simply aren't supported by the data they are presenting. It's a fatal flaw, something that is very frowned upon by the scientific community at large and hence we come full circle- there is a reason why the majority of the scientific community will only put their names on papers that further the understanding of human effects on climate. We are trained to read critically. I would never put my name on any radical paper unless I truly was convinced (which takes a lot- more than just one test, a few numbers and some off-beat references) that the effect I am being asked to verify is real and that the conclusions being drawn are supported by the evidence. It's not something you take lightly, this is your professional reputation on the line. You don't want to be the author on the paper with the fatal flaw.
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Post by wingedwishes on May 13, 2011 12:04:49 GMT -8
Earth has not been warming for the last decade. Arctic ice has increased for the last several decades. To claim that you are only qualified if published is naieve. Again - I have personally witnessed people use others work AND used made up data which was then peer reviewed and "stamped approved." Interesting that I witnessed it in Norman Oklahoma! Majority believing something adds no credulity in any way. The credulity of much of the data (not random numbers but selected ones) provided to extol the beliefs of anthropomorphic global warming is in question as well. I do not need an expert to tell me the photos of ice coverage at the poles is increasing when I am not blind. Telling me the planet is warming when the visable shows me otherwise is a bit irritating. Go ahead, think otherwise, I'll trust the photos (unless photoshop is involved).
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Post by starlightcriminal on May 13, 2011 13:58:07 GMT -8
That's interesting, it's really not how publishing works though. It isn't done at Norman, publishers lie elsewhere. I have personal experience.
Ice caps most certainly are not growing at large. The is measurable retreat on all fronts. May up in inches at the poles in a tiny patch, that I don't know one way or the other. But I do know that the mass of ice as a whole is shrinking rapidly and the sea levels are going up rapidly (as the people of Tuvalu about that one). I don't know what pictures you saw but I see videos in real time of huge chunks of ice floating off into the ocean all the time. Not to mention the polar bear cubs starving with no ice anymore, and so on and so on. So if you want to rely on pictures, well...
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Post by dertodesking on May 14, 2011 15:22:34 GMT -8
I did by BSc in Geology and MSc in Environmental Science (which focussed almost entirely on meteorology, oceanography etc etc...subjects closely linked/having an impact upon climate change) nearly twenty years ago now and at the time the prevailing paradigm was that we were approaching another Ice Age!
I tend to favour the explanation that man has had a small (very small?) impact upon global climate (via the so-called "greenhouse effect") but that this is dwarfed in comparison to much larger, natural, climate change. That's just my view though.
However, anyone hear about the so-called "Climategate" scandal here in the UK when emails were leaked/hacked (depending on who you believe) from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia? A summary below... "Hundreds of highly compromising emails and documents have been leaked online from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. The emails provide evidence that climatologists systematically colluded in manipulating data to support the view that climate change is real, and is being caused by mankind. The leaked emails discuss political pressure on scientists, statistical tricks how to hide inconvenient data, how to squeeze dissenting scientists out of the peer reviews, how to censor information going out to the public, how to decline requests for information under the Freedom of Information Act, how to prevent dissenting researchers from publishing in scientific journals, and how to boycott journals who did. Several authors and recipients of the leaked emails have confirmed their veracity. The leak from the Climatic Research Unit calls into question scientific methods and the results of several public climate research institutes worldwide. The CRU at the University of East Anglia is one of the world’s leading research centers on climate change and the top source of temperature data worldwide. It played a key role in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) fourth Assessment Report, which is the scientific base of policy negotiations at the Copenhagen Climate Conference next month.
The IPCC spent 100.000.000 $ of public resources in funding reseachers to find proof of man made global warming. The resulting IPCC fourth Assessment Report provided support for the UN policy to mitigate global warming and for a further implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. Proposals for a new Copenhagen Climate Treaty including the much disputed Global Emissions Trading scheme were the policy response to the IPCC's biased research results.
The UN Cap-and-Trade CO2 reduction scheme has been widely criticised for giving politicians state monopoly over the supply of a virtual but indispensable commodity of CO2 allowances and for providing politicians with another powerfull instrument to raise taxes most discretely through industry.
Economists view the Cap and Trade's arbitrary allocation of CO2 allowances to countries, industries and individual plants as a dangerous step towards a centrally planned economy. It would be a new cash cow for the climate-industrial complex of emissions traders and big business having access to the right lobbyists. Britain's richest man Lakshmi Mittal recently cashed £1 billion from excess ETS carbon permits attributed under the EU's arbitrary Emissions Trading Scheme (Times). Both Al Gore and Rajendra Pachauri (head of the IPCC) are reported to have huge business interests in Carbon Trade. The UN's similar cap-and trade sheme would allow politics to tax or subsidise industries at wish. Many economists consider the Copenhagen proposals as a power grab of politics on the market economy and as a most serious restraint on the progress of Western as well as develloping nations.
Michael Mann was Author of the forged "hockey-stick graph" used by Al Gore and of the Climate Change report of the UN IPCC . He invented the "Nature trick" of adding in real temps to proxie data. "It would be nice to try to contain the putative Medieval Warm Period" Wed, 04 Jun 2003. The climate researchers have always declined to share their data with fellow scientists although sharing raw data with fellow scientists is standard procedure and the key to verifying research.
The general picture of the series of emails is one of conspiracy, collusion in exaggerating warming data, political pressures, manipulation of data and peer-reviews, possibly illegal destruction of embarrassing information, and organized resistance to disclosure. They produced fraudulent research which the eco-industrial complex has used to their own profit and which ecologists exploited for their political agendas and to brainwash a whole generation . Phil Jones headed Britain's Centre for Climate Research. He was at the centre of the biggest scientific scandal in history and resigned from his post. "If anything, I would like to see the climate change happen, so the science could be proved right, regardless of the consequences". July 5, 2005 A list of excerpts from the incriminating emails can be found online including:
Phil Jones says he has use Mann's "Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series"...to hide the decline". Real Climate says "hiding" was an unfortunate turn of phrase.
Michell Mann tells Jones that it would be nice to '"contain" the putative Medieval Warm Period'.
Michael Mann discusses how to destroy a journal that has published sceptic papers. Wigley discusses fixing an issue with sea surface temperatures in the context of making the results look both warmer but still plausible.
Tim Osborn discusses how data are truncated to stop an apparent cooling trend showing up in the results.
Phil Jones encourages colleagues to delete information subject to Freedom of Information request.
Kevin Trenberth says they can't account for the lack of recent warming and that it is a travesty that they can't.
Funkhouser says he's pulled every trick up his sleeve to milk his Kyrgistan series. Doesn't think it's productive to juggle the chronology statistics any more than he has.
Jones says he and Kevin will keep some papers out of the next IPCC report.
Santer says he will no longer publish in Royal Met Soc journals if they enforce intermediate data being made available. Jones has complained to head of Royal Met Soc about new editor of Weather [why?data?] and has threatened to resign from RMS.
Grant Foster putting together a critical comment on a sceptic paper. Asks for help for names of possible reviewers. Jones replies with a list of people, telling Foster they know what to say about the paper and the comment without any prompting.
David Parker discussing the possibility of changing the reference period for global temperature index. Thinks this shouldn't be done because it confuses people and because it will make things look less warm.
An anonymous source says that robustness problems with the Hockey Stick are known to anyone who understands his methodology. The source says that there will be a lot of noise over McIntyre's 2003 paper and that knowing Mann's very thin skin he will react strongly, unless he has learned from the past."
Simon
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Post by saturniidave on May 14, 2011 17:09:43 GMT -8
Yeah, I read that Simon. I still think that climate change is a normal part of the Earth's cycle but also believe we have speeded up the process.
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Post by starlightcriminal on May 15, 2011 12:21:59 GMT -8
ditto
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Post by Chris Grinter on May 15, 2011 12:58:56 GMT -8
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Post by jshuey on May 25, 2011 6:10:44 GMT -8
A link between climate change and Joplin tornadoes? Never! The Washington Post - Opinions By Bill McKibben, May 23, 2011 www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-link-between-climate-change-and-joplin-tornadoes-never/2011/05/23/AFrVC49G_story.html Caution: It is vitally important not to make connections. When you see pictures of rubble like this week’s shots from Joplin, Mo., you should not wonder: Is this somehow related to the tornado outbreak three weeks ago in Tuscaloosa, Ala., or the enormous outbreak a couple of weeks before that (which, together, comprised the most active April for tornadoes in U.S. history). No, that doesn’t mean a thing. It is far better to think of these as isolated, unpredictable, discrete events. It is not advisable to try to connect them in your mind with, say, the fires burning across Texas — fires that have burned more of America at this point this year than any wildfires have in previous years. Texas, and adjoining parts of Oklahoma and New Mexico, are drier than they’ve ever been — the drought is worse than that of the Dust Bowl. But do not wonder if they’re somehow connected. If you did wonder, you see, you would also have to wonder about whether this year’s record snowfalls and rainfalls across the Midwest — resulting in record flooding along the Mississippi — could somehow be related. And then you might find your thoughts wandering to, oh, global warming, and to the fact that climatologists have been predicting for years that as we flood the atmosphere with carbon we will also start both drying and flooding the planet, since warm air holds more water vapor than cold air. It’s far smarter to repeat to yourself the comforting mantra that no single weather event can ever be directly tied to climate change. There have been tornadoes before, and floods — that’s the important thing. Just be careful to make sure you don’t let yourself wonder why all these record-breaking events are happening in such proximity — that is, why there have been unprecedented megafloods in Australia, New Zealand and Pakistan in the past year. Why it’s just now that the Arctic has melted for the first time in thousands of years. No, better to focus on the immediate casualties, watch the videotape from the store cameras as the shelves are blown over. Look at the news anchorman standing in his waders in the rising river as the water approaches his chest. Because if you asked yourself what it meant that the Amazon has just come through its second hundred-year drought in the past five years, or that the pine forests across the western part of this continent have been obliterated by a beetle in the past decade — well, you might have to ask other questions. Such as: Should President Obama really just have opened a huge swath of Wyoming to new coal mining? Should Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sign a permit this summer allowing a huge new pipeline to carry oil from the tar sands of Alberta? You might also have to ask yourself: Do we have a bigger problem than $4-a-gallon gasoline? Better to join with the U.S. House of Representatives, which voted 240 to 184 this spring to defeat a resolution saying simply that “climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for public health and welfare.” Propose your own physics; ignore physics altogether. Just don’t start asking yourself whether there might be some relation among last year’s failed grain harvest from the Russian heat wave, and Queensland’s failed grain harvest from its record flood, and France’s and Germany’s current drought-related crop failures, and the death of the winter wheat crop in Texas, and the inability of Midwestern farmers to get corn planted in their sodden fields. Surely the record food prices are just freak outliers, not signs of anything systemic. It’s very important to stay calm. If you got upset about any of this, you might forget how important it is not to disrupt the record profits of our fossil fuel companies. If worst ever did come to worst, it’s reassuring to remember what the U.S. Chamber of Commerce told the Environmental Protection Agency in a recent filing: that there’s no need to worry because “populations can acclimatize to warmer climates via a range of behavioral, physiological, and technological adaptations.” I’m pretty sure that’s what residents are telling themselves in Joplin today. Bill McKibben is a distinguished scholar at Middlebury College in Vermont.
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