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Post by papilio28570 on Jun 10, 2011 18:12:57 GMT -8
Yawn....
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Post by bugdude94 on Jul 23, 2011 11:41:00 GMT -8
I do relise that there have been changes in the world. Yes, I can say that it is definatly warmer. But the real question [this has been stated before] is, is man the cause of this? Al Gore, the slef proclaimed "founder" of global warming says that global warming is indeed a man made problem. Personaly, I think Al Gore hyped up "global warming"to waht it is today for selfish puroses such as MONEY. Last I heard of Al Gore he drives a Ram 1500 with a hemi engine that has a carbon foot-print the size of his ego. Reguardless of the cause, man made or natural, it definatly has effect that may come back to bite us. {maybe}
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rjb
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Posts: 187
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Post by rjb on Jul 24, 2011 18:45:40 GMT -8
I haven't seen a warming trend at my home. I've recorded daily highs and lows in Albuquerque for about 27 years and no matter how I look at the data, I don't detect a warming trend. But that is pretty much irrelevent. The science is in and it shows that GLOBALLY there is a degree or so temperature increase on average. It takes a lot of data to show that.
A politician like Al Gore might be the slimiest slug on earth with selfish motives and no morals (not saying that he is!), but he could still be right. In fact he was wrong on a few points, like the details on hurricanes. He was trying to scare people because that is what lots of politicians do. Scare tactics often yield results. However, many very knowledgeable climate-scientists are quite scared. They think this warming is going to be a very bad thing for humans and lots of creatures on earth. They are probably correct but it is irrelevent. It is difficult to get humans to do anything that looks like selflessness. If humans have to stop burning coal and oil, they will resist. They will lie to themselves saying it isn't necessary. Rick
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Post by wingedwishes on Jul 24, 2011 22:33:06 GMT -8
You can take data from different segments of time to support either claim. If you use the miniscule period of time from the 80's to today - the planet is warming. If you go back much farther into centuries, the planet warmed a little but less so than at many other times. Go back farther and ice core samples indicate that the planet had many times more "green house gases" than today. Thermometer data does not go back very far in history. If we want to go way way back then the toasty atmosphere was packed full of carbon before single celled organisms began to photosynthesize and changed the planet completely. Life has changed the planet several times.
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rjb
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Posts: 187
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Post by rjb on Jul 25, 2011 14:39:47 GMT -8
Yep, I think all of your statements are correct. And yet ... the highly knowledgeable climate scientists who know all of that are scared that we are in deep trouble. They think that burning all these fossil fuels has already gotten us in serious trouble and it is going to get really bad. For peace-of-mind, it is best to assume that all the climate scientists are wrong and that Wingedwishes is correct. Then there is nothing to worry about. Let us all feel happy and peaceful.
Rick
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Post by wingedwishes on Jul 26, 2011 9:52:15 GMT -8
No no no RJB. Let's only believe those whose conclusions fit those you believe to save headaches. Those others who work in the same field ut who disagree can be ignored or harrassed so that they don't violate the tenents of the "accepted" scientists. Gaia forbid that anyone question falsified or manipulated data and cause everyone to think about things like a single volcano belching more carbon into the air than.... well, do your own research and draw your own conclusions.
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Post by starlightcriminal on Jul 27, 2011 8:35:44 GMT -8
"Let's only believe those whose conclusions fit those you believe to save headaches"
Lol. Just what I suspected.
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Post by wingedwishes on Jul 27, 2011 10:40:59 GMT -8
It is the human psyche to do this. No matter what your belief system, it is a rare person who will consider anything challenging to what they believe. Rather than honest debate, most will resort to raising their voice to drown out dissenters. The Catholic church was notorious for this during the Dark Ages. I don't know if they still do but I hope not.
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rjb
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Posts: 187
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Post by rjb on Jul 27, 2011 16:37:21 GMT -8
WW: It is an overgeneralization to say that most people cling to their beliefs. Many people change beliefs during their life.
A minor belief like whether scientists are right about global warming is relatively easy. Science has a very long history of successes. If you choose to believe that the science is wrong, you are setting yourself up to be wrong, just like the Catholic Church did on the geo-centric universe and evolution.
I assumed the global warming issue was wrong when it first hit the press. Scientists very often get it wrong when they publish anything novel. 1) if they can't get it into the peer reviewed literature, it is surely wrong. 2) if they get it published in peer-review, it is still quite likely to be wrong. Then all their scientific peers will jump in and publish exposes on what they did wrong. 3) When 90%+ of the scientists in your field agree, then it is almost surely correct.
I had to change over my initial belief when decades went by with essentially "no one" (None of the hundred scientists who are competing for attention and funding in the field of climate science that is) saying the global warming results were wrong.
You can dismiss peer-review as flawed and of course it is (I had to publish about 40 peer-reviewed papers during my career and had to be the reviewer on countless papers by others, so I know the flaws). You can distrust any scientist for exaggerating the significance of his/her work to try for more funding, it happens all the time. But when you dismiss the whole area of climate science by assuming that all hundred scientists active in the area are liars and frauds, then you do not understand how science works. You are anti-science and I am pro-science, so we will never be likely to agree. But we both still like insects a lot! Rick
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Post by wingedwishes on Jul 27, 2011 20:00:02 GMT -8
I maintain the opposite. Pure science is always open to debate and those who are dismissing/ manipulating/ and denigrating without considering a thought outside of their beliefs are just small minded (dare I say unevolved?). Science has had a long history of failures as well. Is science the cause? Heck no; Scientists are. 90% or even 100% of people in a field can use data to believe something and still be wrong. It can be 1 person in a field who can have an epiphany which revolutionizes a field as well. I am asking for all people to be able to listen to others who disagree without being so devolved as to insult, denigrate, or resort to negative inferances. I assert that all creatures in the homo sapiens line are capable of of dishonesty which derails science. Not only do I understand how science works, I also understand how humans work as well. My dad always used to say "and what does the big picture show?" One method of measuring temperature used to track temps over a short time and creating a cause and effect scenario is insufficient. What does the big picture show? When you take all measuring methods and include the last million or so years, what does that show? When this is factored in, what do the climatologists say? I'm really asking..... What do they say then? How do they relate vulcanism, ice cores, paleo botany, sunspots, written history, and even geo magnetism over such a span of time? I think they are missing the big picture. It is ok though, specialization in a field necessarily occludes the big picture. The scientist who can put aside emotions and faith and look at the big picture would conclude what? If this makes me anti science, then science has failed. I apologize to the revolutionary scientist Aristotle who I have held in high regard.
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Post by nomihoudai on Jul 28, 2011 2:03:12 GMT -8
>(dare I say unevolved?)
No you may not! Go immediately to the sink and wash your mouth with soap for pronouncing such a wrong and ill-minded word like "unev..." ( I not dare to repeat the word ) It gives a clear statement on what "scientific level" the discussion is now.
>What does the big picture show?
Yeah include the time of more than 4 billion years ago... the time where there was no life ^^ When you want to know what will happen in 100 years you have to be reasonable to choose at what date beforehand of these 100 years you will take data into because most of it may be irrelevant.
I can't find the exact number now but you said something along the lines of " 100000 years ago there was more CO2 on earth and it was much hotter " and I must say that such a statement is completely out of discussion. 100000 ago none of the big cities we have nowadays had been built yet and if the climate at these spots was unfruitful it didn't matter to humanity, they just went elsewhere, but today, you can't move billions of people...
...but it is easy to stick to ones belief, isn't it ?
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Post by wingedwishes on Jul 28, 2011 2:53:39 GMT -8
Ok nomihoudai. "Reasonable" is not excluding data that is only a few hundred years old. If you want to only include the last few decades, then that is unreasonable to me. The industrial revolution spewed more unfiltered toxins, including CO2, than today or yesterday (or 30 years ago - what ever is reasonable). This is important. Why is it not factored in to predictions? Is it human ego? Fuel with lead in it was phased out in the 1970's. Could the planet have rebounded now since the temperatures could now be dropping and lead is no longer in te air? Are CFC's mostly gone too? The claim was that when they were severely damaging the ozone. If the ozone is still bad or worse, is it reasonable to question if CFC's were to blame? A belief that can encompass and accept discussion is a growing one. To reject all else would be easy for some but others prefer to grow and learn and debate. The point of relavance of time is brilliant nomihoudai and it makes us question where the data is appropriate. Good!
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rjb
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Posts: 187
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Post by rjb on Jul 28, 2011 14:27:30 GMT -8
Scientific debate is indeed very important in science progress. It occurs constantly and is still going on in the area of climate change. You and I are not participating because we are not climate scientists. Science debate goes on in the peer-reviewed literature. You say: "The industrial revolution spewed more unfiltered toxins, including CO2, than today or yesterday (or 30 years ago - what ever is reasonable). This is important. Why is it not factored in to predictions? Is it human ego? "
If you were correct that: 1) this is important and 2) It was not factored in to predictions
then I would be amazed. The standard for scientific study is that whenever I discover that someone has left out an important factor from their calculation, I immediately redo the calculation with the important factor included and show that they were stupid. I get an easy publication and a lot of acclaim. This has not happened. I would guess that a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation would show that including those pollutants in the quantities released cannot have any measurable effect.
The release of tetraethyl lead into the environment may have had some very important toxicological consequences including to the developing brains of all of us. Effect on climate, I sincerely doubt it but I won't make that discovery. I am retired and don't have easy access to the primary literature. You are lucky that you are able to acquire the important climate science publications. I cannot. Rick
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Post by starlightcriminal on Jul 29, 2011 5:14:21 GMT -8
First, specializing does not exclude understanding the bigger implications of your work- in fact it is usually just the opposite, because by the time you have become "specialized" you have already been exposed to the big picture. You specialize so you can better understand a part of the big picture, so we don't walk around saying the earth is flat. It also indicates that you are capable of higher level thinking and that you have proven your capacity to learn new things.
Second, why do you accuse all of the people posting here and all of the scientists who support the idea of a human-mediated rise in average global temperatures of "small-minded" because we disagree? You literally say "without considering a thought outside of their beliefs" as though you have way of knowing what we have and have not considered. It suggests a bit of hypocrisy- it is you who denigrates our opinions because you have made your decision already based on a white elephant of a study and anything we (or the vast majority of the educated world) say that contradicts it you obligatorily refute. You are doing the very thing you suggest is going on with the rest of us. Understanding people, you should know that we often like to superimpose our own faults on everyone around us to justify our own mode of thinking. It's amazing to me that you can somehow tell, without really knowing any of us, what literature we have or have not seen on the subject and make a judgment that all of the people who are saying something you chose to ignore are basing their entire perspective on Al Gore, for example.
You are right about one thing- it is much easier to plug your ears and shout louder than to read comprehensively the calculus functions that define the models and parameters which guide climate science. It's much easier than learning the physics of fluid dynamics. It's far simpler than learning everything that all the "specialists" spent their lives investigating. But it certainly makes you a lot less capable of understanding what the heck the big picture you are looking at actually is.
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Post by wingedwishes on Jul 29, 2011 7:48:36 GMT -8
You've missed my point entirely. I maintain that anything which disagrees is discarded in this area. I read/ consider/ listen/ and watch. I'll form my opinions based on that. I am open to any course the evidence leads. Obligatory refutation is certainly not being done by myself. I maintain it is happening on the other side of the argument. When you have posted something, I have responded with a question and why I questioned the assertation. The apparent arrogance displayed those who say "who are you? You are not trained to speak" is, to me, unenlightened. You fail completely in stating what makes or does not make someone capable. The opinions that you feel are denigrated are only questioned. If questioning an opinion is denigrating, my point is completely made. The constant argument that "the majority of people in a field agree so it must be right" is a constant point but a worthless one. Most educated theologians agree that there is a God. Does that mean that there is? No? It means that most agree. It does not mean most are right.
To summarize:
I think that the statement that the planet is warming due to people is questionable despite the statement of the majority who are trained in the related field. I think that the questions raised by those who are learned and who disagree are valid. I think that there are very likely direct benefits and finances in the academic world for those who say the planet is warming due to people. I think this because the things that I have read and are presented by others are cogent and qualified to speak about it. Thise things are publically available to read.
Point ended. Take it or leave it. I will continue to read about the planet and watch it with my own eyes as well as doing what I can to help maintain it.
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